A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
